Need help with CLV

Using the case data (attached) and the CLVformulation provided in the textbook and slide decks, estimate the lifetime value of a Netflix customer for each quarter.
How do you expect industry changes and technology advances to affect Netflix? Are these expectations validated by the trend in Netflix’s customer acquisition, customer retention, customer revenue, and CLV?
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ATTACHED FILE(S)
Title Page
This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case “Netflix, Inc.: The Customer Strikes Back” (UVA-M-0834).
This spreadsheet was prepared by Rajkumar Venkatesan, Bank of America Research Associate Professor of Business Administration. Copyright © 2015 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved.For customer service inquiries, send an e-mail tosales@dardenbusinesspublishing.com. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, posted to the Internet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation.
Dec. 7, 2015
Base Data for CLV
NETFLIX, INC.: THE CUSTOMER STRIKES BACK
Data for Calculating Customer Lifetime Value
All values in thousands except margin per subscriber and subscriber acquisition cost.
Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
Revenues $ 17,057 $ 18,359 $ 18,878 $ 21,618 $ 30,527 $ 36,360 $ 40,731 $ 45,188 $ 55,669 $ 63,187 $ 72,202 $ 81,185 $ 100,370 $ 120,321 $ 141,644 $ 138,276 $ 152,446 $ 164,027 $ 172,740 $ 193,000 $ 224,126 $ 239,351 $ 255,950 $ 277,233 $ 305,320 $ 303,693 $ 293,972 $ 302,355 $ 326,183 $ 337,614 $ 341,269 $ 359,595 $ 394,098 $ 408,509 $ 423,120 $ 444,542 $ 493,665 $ 519,819 $ 553,219 $ 595,922 $ 706,274 $ 769,714 $ 799,152
Shively, Daniel: Shively, Daniel:
total domestic from shareholder letter $ 846,587
Cost of subscription 9,476 10,776 9,667 14,811 14,872 17,779 21,147 23,246 29,928 35,148 38,326 44,334 56,444 69,604 71,130 76,223 93,986 99,957 97,878 101,967 126,220 128,605 135,210 142,586 165,189 166,838 163,707 168,673 187,156 193,769 186,573 193,635 215,299 224,858 233,091 231,598 259,560 265,387 292,406 336,756 376,992 428,203 471,823
Shively, Daniel: Shively, Daniel:
total cost of revenue from financials 512,578
Fulfillment expenses 2,886 3,589 3,283 3,785 4,155 4,854 4,908 5,449 6,383 7,221 8,322 9,348 10,790 14,373 8,322 23,124 16,694 17,560 15,013 21,495 22,045 21,974 23,583 26,762 29,783 29,855 30,746 31,377 35,649 36,318 37,923 39,211 43,969 44,385 42,183 43,888 47,602 49,547 52,063 54,034 61,159 61,775 64,794
Shively, Daniel: Shively, Daniel:
total cost of revenue from financials 62,577
Technology and development 3,857 4,896 4,463 4,802 3,181 3,518 3,966 3,960 4,183 4,123 4,738 4,840 5,039 5,652 4,738 7,477 7,155 7,513 6,325 9,949 11,206 12,043 8,955 16,175 15,715 18,907 18,216 18,557 20,516 22,670 23,368 24,052 24,200 27,119 30,014 33,209 37,399 37,863 42,108 45,959 50,905 57,865 69,480
Shively, Daniel: Shively, Daniel:
total cost of revenue from financials 80,783
Paid subscribers: end of period 708 1,416 6,676 6,609 6,845 7,326 8,102 8,235 8,490 9,164 10,116 10,375 10,835 11,892 13,622 14,577 15,863 18,268 21,405 23,263 22,843
Shively, Daniel: Shively, Daniel:
from quarterly shareholder letter 24,395
Paid subscribers: end of last period 633 1,242 6,154 14,577 15,863 18,268 21,405 23,263
Shively, Daniel: Shively, Daniel:
from quarterly shareholder letter 22,843
Number of paid subscribers 303 306 315 456 562 598 671 857 1,009 1,055 1,172 1,224 1,631 1,933 2,080 2,308 2,687 2,998 3,266 3,725 4,380 4,876 5,253 5,823 6,415 6,643 6,727 7,086 7,714 8,169 8,363 8,827 9,640 10,246 10,605 11,364 12,757 14,100 15,220 17,066 19,837 22,334 23,053 23,619
Gross subscriber additions 186 88 107 186 312 236 277 315 417 327 383 444 760 583 590 783 945 707 921 1,156 1,377 1,070 1,310 1,493 1,520 1,028 1,297 1,495 1,862 1,384 1,528 2,085 2,413 1,936 2,180 2,803 3,492 3,059 4,101 5,649 6,299 5,315 4,714
Shively, Daniel: Shively, Daniel:
from quarterly shareholder letter 5,216
Cost of revenues $ 12,362 $ 14,365 $ 12,950 $ 18,596 $ 19,027 $ 22,633 $ 26,055 $ 28,695 $ 36,311 $ 42,369 $ 46,648 $ 53,682 $ 67,234 $ 83,977 $ 79,452 $ 99,347 $ 110,680 $ 117,517 $ 112,891 $ 123,462 $ 148,265 $ 150,579 $ 158,793 $ 169,348 $ 194,972 $ 196,693 $ 194,453 $ 200,050 $ 222,805 $ 230,087 $ 224,496 $ 232,846 $ 259,268 $ 269,243 $ 275,274 $ 275,486 $ 307,162 $ 314,934 $ 344,469 $ 390,790 $ 438,151 $ 489,978 $ 536,617 $ 575,155
Subscriber acquisition cost (domestic after March 2011) $ 25.15 $ 46.48 $ 32.19 $ 33.24 $ 25.44 $ 34.13 $ 33.57 $ 33.31 $ 31.67 $ 30.45 $ 31.81 $ 32.89 $ 35.12 $ 35.12 $ 38.18 $ 49.39 $ 37.89 $ 37.25 $ 35.69 $ 49.59 $ 38.47 $ 43.95 $ 45.32 $ 61.66 $ 47.46 $ 44.02 $ 37.91 $ 34.60 $ 29.50 $ 28.95 $ 32.21 $ 26.67 $ 25.79 $ 23.88 $ 26.86 $ 25.23 $ 21.54 $ 24.37 $ 19.81 $ 11.13 $ 14.38 $ 15.09 $ 15.25
Shively, Daniel: Shively, Daniel:
from quarterly shareholder letter $ 15.62
Market capitalization $ 302,016 $ 214,069 $ 247,130 $ 467,582 $ 612,152 $ 813,092 $ 1,354,507 $ 1,758,750 $ 1,876,356 $ 806,512 $ 650,186 $ 574,670 $ 876,721 $ 1,402,472 $ 1,481,697 $ 1,609,235 $ 1,848,566 $ 1,552,548 $ 1,774,306 $ 1,594,591 $ 1,311,501 $ 1,727,984 $ 1,727,984 $ 2,132,708 $ 1,614,020 $ 1,825,626 $ 1,759,385 $ 2,510,605 $ 2,373,577 $ 2,522,867 $ 2,944,010 $ 3,853,800 $ 5,688,697 $ 8,473,995 $ 9,273,797 $ 12,487,968 $ 13,800,682 $ 5,947,128 $ 3,838,597
Share price 13.99 9.70 11.01 20.35 25.55 33.56 54.69 34.12 36.00 15.42 12.33 10.85 16.41 25.99 27.06 28.99 27.21 22.78 25.86 23.19 19.39 26.62 26.62 34.65 26.07 30.88 29.89 42.92 41.34 46.17 55.09 73.74 108.65 162.16 175.7 237.78 262.69 113.27 69.29
Outstanding shares 21,588 22,069 22,446 22,977 23,959 24,228 24,767 51,546 52,121 52,303 52,732 52,965 53,426 53,962 54,756 55,510 67,937 68,154 68,612 68,762 67,638 64,913 64,913.00 61550.00 61,911 59,120 58,862 58,495 57,416 54,643 53,440 52,262 52,358 52,257 52,782 52,519 52,536 52,504 55,399

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